PM Leaves At Last

I am unable to share Mrs May’s tears and, I’m sorry to say, that her legacy will be entirely negative.  The opportunity cost, which is great both in economic and reputational terms, of the UK failing to leave the EU in a timely and orderly manner is entirely down to the failure of her leadership.  Let us hope that the new leader ensures that the new plan is practicable before launching into premature promises.  Obviously, we should only be able to negotiate a better deal if were clear that we were prepared to walk away so let us hear no more BBC talk of cliff edges, crashing out and reckless gambles.  As John Redwood says, “a new PM just has to ensure Parliament does not legislate to keep us in. Government has plenty of powers to do just that, which Mrs May declined to use last time because she had herself decided she wanted to delay our exit if she could not have her way and sign the Agreement.”

More Economic Bad News Down to Brexit

Our local golf club is a pleasant walk away and welcoming venue for non-members.  Waiting for my sandwich, I noticed the BBC lunchtime news report on a nearby television.  UK growth rebounds strongly in first quarter was the headline but I waited for the catch.  Sure enough, the BBC dismissed the joyful figure as having been inflated by business stockpiling because of, of course, Brexit uncertainty.  Said quickly enough, the BBC explanation is almost plausible but hang on a minute.  If a business stockpiles, it is, presumably, not intending to hoard but rather to sell the goods on or make them into something else to sell for a profit?  There may be other reasons, for example, potential disruptions to supply chains and just in time contracts but, at the end of the day, the business that is stockpiling is making plans to ensure it keeps in business.  Stockpiling is, thus, a demonstration of confidence in the future, not lack of it.  There is, of course, no point in making this obvious point to the BBC whose editorial mind is already made-up.