The Queen's Speech

On the eve of the new Parliament, this is what our CPF thought should be priorities:

Immigration.       We consider our lack of control over immigration to be the root cause of most of our social or economic problems. Further, we are highly concerned that inadequate border controls make it easy for potential terrorists to travel to our country.  We need urgent measures to regain sovereignty, including, even, a moratorium to demonstrate intent.  Whilst we would have been encouraged by the Prime Minister's later announcements we would have been equally cynical about the reach and practicability of his proposals.

Deficit.        It will clearly take more than lip-service to "the long term economic plan" to insure our financial health against global shocks.  Equally, our productivity must improve if we are to even maintain our lowly position in international competitiveness. We urge decisive action early in the parliament whilst public goodwill will be at its highest and our own benches probably most accommodating. Again, we would have been encouraged by the Chancellor's later commitment to improving productivity and his acknowledgement that "our future prosperity depends upon it."

Defence.     We restate our concern about the prospect of further cuts to the armed forces budget and our contribution to NATO collective security against the background of increasing geo-political instability.  The government must revise foreign policy drivers and funding constraints for Strategic Defence & Security Review 2015. We have previously described the Conservative position on defence as complacent and reckless and we have no reason to change our opinion.

Education.  Our position in international education league tables (lamentable) is incompatible with our ambition for economic survival and regeneration.  We must achieve a dramatic improvement in productivity to make best use of the vast resources devoted to education.  The starting point for this crusade will be standards and discipline. We were dismayed that Michael Gove was moved on after having made such a positive start taking on the education blob and we are not encouraged by the present Secretary of State's lack of reforming zeal.

Boundaries and Regional Empowerment Issues.         The first priority for survival in a hostile terrain is protection and the Government should force through the Boundaries Commission recommendations. Simultaneously, as a matter of fairness to the UK as a whole, given the extent of devolved powers already, the grotesque imbalance of Scottish MPs must be addressed. We do not believe that the SNP, with their declared intention of breaking up the United Kingdom, should be treated with kid gloves.  We continue to believe that further regional empowerment should not be a political priority

Mary Riddell

I am not a great fan of Mary Riddell, believing that she inhabits a different political planet to most rational voices.  However, I eagerly await her regular piece in the Telegraph this week!

Prioities for the new Government

OK, so I had a bet on 301 to 325 seats at 3-1 but it was more wishful thinking than a serious hope of a financial return, as my last post indicated.  Although I lost my money, I was delighted to have been proved hopelessly pessimistic!

The newspapers thereafter have been full of advice on how our "winning" leader should proceed.  Surely nothing need be done on the economy?  Unless we have been mislead, our "long-term economic plan" will see that right.  This should leave plenty of capacity to deal with issues conveniently neglected in the election auction of promises.  Here is my top five:

•  Implement the Boundaries Commission recommendations. The first priority for survival in a hostile terrain is protection

•  Revise foreign policy drivers and funding constraints for Strategic Defence & Security Review 2015.  More protection

•  Revise the Energy Policy to ensure practicability and affordability rather than looking good in Paris

•  Deal decisively with Scotland.  Rather like feeding the crocodile, piecemeal concessions will only encourage greater demands from Nationalists

•  Reinvigorate Gove's education reforms.  Indeed, since the promotion of skills is the fundamental upon which our commercial survival in the global race depends, we must tackle this particular blob with determination. In my opinion, the ever-helpful and multi-faceted Nicky Morgan is quite the wrong person to do this.

My Verdict on the Election

Thank goodness this interminable election campaign is over!  How on earth all political parties have managed to conduct their campaigns without confronting the major issues beggars belief.  How can defence of the realm be ignored in the current geopolitical climate?  How can it be right to advocate more borrowing and load our unjustified profligacy on our children? How can anyone believe that the NHS, confronted with ever more expensive treatments, insatiable public expectation and inexorable longevity, can possibly be funded by fag packet calculation?  How can we maintain our competitiveness in the world's market place and become more productive.  Why is it that businesses need to recruit from abroad because they cannot find the skills they need at home? What is wrong with our culture and pride in our Nation that denigrates past achievement and dumbs-down or ignores anything remotely difficult to comprehend?

The only certainty tomorrow will be the triumphant entry of 650 arm-waving nonentities into the new House of Commons (there are a few with principles, who I would except, but very few).  Now, if the BBC gets its wish, we can look forward to a period of legislative impotence allowing the institutions and vested interests to carry on business as usual.  If we are lucky, the real issues of this election, mentioned above, will simply lie festering in the slender hope that, once the hubris subsides, politics will "get real."  If we are unlucky, and "events" occur, then ever serve us right!

No Votes in Defence

Iain Martin, writing in today's Sunday Telegraph, begins his article: "what is the point of the Conservative Party if it is not much interested in the defence of the realm?"

Quite!

The Budget

In the last meeting of our CPF Group before the election we decided to tell our respective MPs what we should like to see in the budget.  Not that we expected our submission to have any influence at this stage but we felt better about getting our viewpoint in print before the big day.  This is what we said:

"A budget genuinely looking to "Secure Britain's Future" would address such major economic challenges as low productivity, trade imbalances and insufficient investment, both public and private.  Sadly, we concluded that such imperatives would cut little ice with the majority of the electorate and that our best chance of securing Britain's long term future rested with, first, getting a Conservative Government elected and second hoping that, longer term, that Government would have the courage to do the right thing.  In essence, therefore, we believe the budget must lure voters with some jam today and even more (if you vote for us) tomorrow.  Our 5 priories for headlines in the popular press on Thursday 19 March are:

·        Increase the tax free allowance band to £12,000 paid for by a turnover tax on multi-national companies who are otherwise able to shelter their tax liability.

• Increase the 40% tax band threshold to a (meaningful) £50,000.  Timid and marginal improvements would not have the desired impact of ensuring we are serious about rewarding work and effort.  Probably a net gain to the Treasury.

• Continue to control the leviathan welfare expenditure - further tightening of the benefit cap, including a clamp-down on "hardship" top-ups, and measures to foil benefit and healthcare tourism.  In particular, announce a move to link benefits to contributions (thus circumventing an EU veto on other measures, previously floated). Net reduction for the Treasury

•  A statement on defence spending which reassures voters that we are properly funding the capabilities necessary to match out foreign policy goals and be prepared for unexpected world events.  Additional cost to the Treasury offset by a substantial dividend of increased trust in the Prime Minister (actually, probably, less distrust).

• A statement that recognises rising public expectation for public services; schools, hospitals, housing, transport etc, but does not cripple the public finances in provision.  In other words, giving hope that a future Conservative Government would break the cycle of rising public provision without earning enough to pay for it.  Neutral to the Treasury but a political minefield for opposition."

U Turn on Defence Looming?

The reluctance to even mention defence in the campaign literature we are sending out at the moment tells us either; "the long term economic plan" does not have room for the defence of the realm as a priority or would have us believe that the lack of a threat to our security permits us to lower our guard. Both propositions are dangerously mistaken. At a time of worrying geo-political instability, the prospect of further cuts to the armed forces budget and our contribution to NATO collective security is reckless and a dereliction of the duty of Government.

David Cameron believes, according to his polling, that there are no votes in defence. But wait, the steady drip of newspaper and television articles and intervention by our American allies appears to be softening us up for a change of heart.  Maybe there are some votes in defence after all?  Quick, do something eye-catching!  Unfortunately a few vote-grabbing headlines today can easily be undone by SDSR 2015 tomorrow.