Half a Loaf Anyone?

A few weeks ago, breaking my mood of constant despair over the Brexit process, I shared with some friends an idea that could break the ideological deadlock in Parliament.  My reasoning was this: despite the “Surrender Act,” Brussels still frets that Boris could, indeed, leave with no deal on 31 October.  Although the EU, in public, claims to be able to shrug off the loss of the UK, in private, they are desperately worried of the potential economic shock which could tip the balance in recession threatened continental Europe – the EU needs a deal.  Boris needs a deal too.  Despite the bravado of the no ifs and buts strategy of leaving on 31 October, he must know that whatever constitutional sharp practice might be necessary to circumvent the “Surrender Act” would be challenged in the courts and probably on the streets.  His only hope is to do a deal with Brussels and then get Parliament to agree it. Some hope – Parliament has already shown that, in the greater interest of defying the referendum altogether, they will frustrate and block any measure that promotes a path to the UK actually leaving the EU.  But suppose Boris cooks up a deal with the EU which, as far as the EU is concerned, looks like Mrs May’s deal and, as far as Boris is concerned, satisfies the DUP over backstop provisions and changes the political declaration sufficiently to alter the Parliamentary arithmetic?  I very much doubt that even that would not be good enough to neutralise the wreckers whose sole object is to stay in the EU.  However, suppose the deal came with strings from the EU – accept the deal or reject it but there is no extension to the deadline for the UK exit.  Parliament would then be faced with a simple binary choice, no ifs or buts, vote for the deal or leave without a deal by default on 31 October.  That should concentrate a few honourable minds!  Under the circumstances, the chances of Parliament voting for the new deal look quite good.  Brussels should be reasonably confident that Parliament would oblige so there would be relatively little risk in them caveating the deal with “no further extension.”  Even better for Brussels, with the real threat of no extension hanging over Parliament, they should not have to concede much from Mrs May's hopeless effort in order to get the new deal to pass.

Of course, the new deal will be a poor deal for the UK.  Doubtless we will still be liable to pay out billions for many years ahead and will be unlikely to be able to throw off, significantly, the shackles of the single market and customs union.  People will continue to come and go as they please, agriculture will remain a basket case and Scottish fishermen will be disappointed.  We’ll probably even commit to the European Army and the Euro in due course.  But we will be out and, from there, anything could be possible.  Half a loaf anyone?