Fake Economic News on the BBC

“Nearly 50% of our exports go to the EU” trumpeted Kamal Ahmed on the BBC News last night.  Some mistake surely?  According to the House of commons Library, in 2016, UK exports to the EU were £236 billion or 43% of total exports.  The EU may, overall, be “our largest trading partner,” but that statement does not mean that the majority of our exports go there – the majority of our exports go to trading partners outside the EU.  Of course, figures are only figures – 43% is nearly half, particularly if you have a message to get across!  Suppose the figure was double; would 86% be translated to "nearly all" -  I dont think so.  Readers will recall that Ahmed has faced allegations in the past that he published numerous articles that “contained significant falsehood and distortion.”

Continuing to lard up his message, Ahmed also used a graph to show a comparison of GDP growth between UK and the EU from about 2007 to the present. The pattern displayed correctly showed the rate of growth diverging in favour of the EU over the last couple of years. This apparently reinforced the consistent editorial line that leaving the EU will be an economic disaster. However, had he shown a growth comparison over a more statistically significant period, the graphic would have portrayed exactly the opposite to his preferred interpretation. In fact, between 1980 and 2007, just before the crash, the average annual growth rate was 2.1% for France, 1.6% for Germany, 2.4% for the Netherlands, and 1.8% for Italy. Meantime, growth in the UK averaged 2.4%. If you extend the period to 2012, the six original signatories of the Treaty of Rome grew at only 1.6% compared to the UK at 2.0%. Finally, as the graph did show, by the end of 2013 the UK was recovering strongly from the crash whilst the EU continued to languish behind. The source for these figures is “The Trouble with Europe” by Roger Bootle. Sadly, and to the detriment of the education of their audience, these statistical inconveniences appear to have been overlooked by Ahmed and the rest of the BBC editorial staff.

In the interests of impartiality and balance, I expect the BBC to publicly acknowledge and correct the misleading impression they have given.