Brexit Mutiny

Paul Collier wrote a very interesting piece in the Spectator this week in which he said that we must regain our bargaining power in the Brexit by, counterintuitively, withdrawing the Article 50 declaration.

The analysis of the problem was cogent as he likened the referendum result to a mutiny fomented by a breakdown of trust between the less successful citizens and their highly-skilled and flexible counterparts, mainly from the South East.  Collier argues that a healthy society rests on the mutual acceptance of a web of obligations amongst its citizens.  No longer feeling reassured, the less fortunate mutinied.  Of course, there were other reasons for voting leave but the mutiny having succeeded there was, as is typical of mutinies, no coherent plan on what to do next.

Here I will depart from Collier’s analysis to point out that a large number of influential opponents of leaving kept themselves well below decks during the mutiny.  Perhaps they felt that their intellect was not needed in such an open and shut argument?  The remain foot soldiers, however, refused to surrender, only increasing the vehemence of their opposition to the referendum result.

With the high-profile mutineers melting into the back ground as the battle had, apparently, been won, although the decks had been cleared, the Government was saddled with a policy without a plan.  In retrospect, it would have been sensible to take stock and define, debate and agree a plan that would achieve adequate agreement for implementation.  However, faced with the Gina Miller disruption and the increasingly strident voices of the Conservative remain camp, perhaps May felt she had to move decisively to reassure the electorate before the disgruntled losers hijacked and destroyed the process.  The behaviour of most of both Houses of Parliament thoroughly vindicates this decision.

Even so, she should have been able to count on her coalition majority to carry things through.  But this was not to be.  Those who had skulked below decks during the mutiny now began to show their true colours – they might have said they support the referendum result and the recent manifesto commitments, but they really believed in remaining.  As their own momentum has built they have become increasingly bold culminating with outright rebellion reported this weekend.  As I write, it seems increasingly unlikely that we shall be able to extricate ourselves from the EU.

So back to Collier who argues that the only way out of the increasingly bitter impasse in which we find ourselves is to withdraw Article 50, make a plan, and start again when we are good and ready.  Although there would be a huge risk of the Remain influencers scotching the whole project it may be the only way to avoid some sort of BRINO fudge.  Depressingly, Collier may, have a point?  How far have we come from the words of the Government leaflet sent out to every household during the referendum, “this is your decision, we will implement what you decide.” MPs should be thoroughly ashamed.