Getting Brexit Undone

It would be reasonable to think Brexit has been done.  After all, our exit on 31 December has been enshrined in law and the Prime Minister commands a very healthy majority in parliament and surely “Remain” now accepts that they have lost?  I wouldn’t be too sure.  Rather like Japanese soldiers hiding in foxholes years after the surrender in 1945 and refusing to believe the conflict had ended, there will be many in the remain camp who refuse to accept that we are leaving and will emerge to re-fight the referendum battle as if the 2019 election and its aftermath had never happened.  The glimmer of opportunity, of course, arises because of the national preoccupation with the Covid-19 crisis.  With normal Government service unlikely to resume in the immediate future surely it makes sense to put the whole Brexit thing on the back burner and agree an extension to the 31 December deadline with our European friends, no matter that we should have to pay, probably very handsomely, for the privilege?  As precious negotiating days leak away whilst we deal with the pandemic surely, it is argued, it will be impossible to do a deal in the remaining time.  Phil Hogan, the EU commissioner for trade thinks that it will be impossible to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement between the UK and the EU by the end of 2020 and we are told that the EU expects the UK to realise the hopelessness of its position and to request an extension of negotiation in June this year.  Just to keep the pot boiling, the Times has launched a readers’ poll on whether an extension should be requested.  The new Labour leader does not mention Britain’s departure from the European Union in his leadership manifesto but expect the siren Starmer to pick up on the delay refrain with “constructive” alacrity.

Seductive as all this sounds it would be helpful to remind ourselves of the Government’s likely negotiating aims.  Anyone believing that we hope to achieve a “comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU” by the end of the year, even without the Covid-19 distraction, probably also believes that there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.  Short of cancelling Brexit and applying to re-join we were never going to get a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU in any reasonable timescale, if ever.  So, not being able to agree a comprehensive free trade deal by 31 December 2019 is a complete red herring – we’ll agree what we can and defer what we cannot which has always been the realistic expectation.  Furthermore, who knows what respective shape the UK and the EU will be in by the end of the year so why should we get out the begging bowl in June?  We need to hold our nerve and our negotiating position – Covid-19 has changed neither.