Number Crunching

Private Eye reckons that the NFU has calculated 95,000 seasonal workers will be needed in the agricultural industry by 2021, the bulk coming from Bulgaria, Poland and Romania.  The organ contrasts this with 99,000, “the net migration target Theresa may has pledged to impose by 2022.”

We are supposed, I suppose, to connect the 2 exclusive statements and conclude that leaving the EU will deprive us of the essential labour we need to keep the agriculture industry working.  That is, leaving the EU is a thoroughly bad thing.

If we do, indeed, need 95,000 seasonal workers then surely the clue is in the job description.  So long as they come to UK for a seasonal job and they are counted in and counted out when they go back home, why should we worry?  Of course, we should need effective border controls before we could have confidence in such arrangements.  Secondly, why should the agricultural tasks be done by humans?  If we can construct robots to complete intricate surgery, surely we can design a machine to pick strawberries? The farmers worry, of course, because the seasonal workers want to be paid in Euros (to send home) and the Pound has depreciated against the Euro recently so that impacts business margins. But, as “The Singing Postman” once observed, “I never seen a farmer on his bike,” so perhaps we should not be too worried about the imminent demise of our agriculture industry?

Meantime, Brexit negotiations finally get under way in Brussels.  There is so much talk of “Hard Brexit” and “Soft Brexit” but precious little definition to help one judge the difference.  Here is my helpful distinction:  a hard Brexit results in the sublime state of the UK leaving the EU whilst a soft Brexit doesn’t!