Captain Speaking will be a Robot in 2050

I was interested in a report on BBC Radio Four in which it was predicted that pilotless cargo aircraft may be operational by 2024. No great surprise in that but the report went further to speculate that we may be flying in pilotless passenger aircraft by 2050. Of course, there is a mountain of technical issues to be solved but I have no doubt that they will be overcome. The more contentious issue will be the construction of the algorithms comprising the intelligence of the autonomous aircraft – that quality of airmanship that we look for in our pilots. How do we programme a system to, for example, take immediate counter intuitive action to dead stick on the River Hudson rather than head for the nearest suitable airfield, as ATC suggested at the time? As we know, Captain Sullenberger got it instinctively right but would the computer have “thought” of the river ditching plan in the instant available to make the irrevocable decision?  On the other hand, is it practicable to attempt to construct the perfect robotic pilot and if not, what residual risk are we prepared to accept?

Indeed, there will be plenty of other examples and situations to cast doubt on the concept but I am sure it will happen and before 2050. If it happens in my lifetime I think I shall give it a go as a passenger. After all, reflecting on my 35-year flying career in the RAF as a pilot, instructor, and examiner, I encountered several pilots who I would have been happy to replace with an autonomous robot, no matter how imperfect the latter.  One in particular, who I rated dangerously over-confident, I managed to axe from my training Unit only to find later, to my immense frustration, that the powers that be had rehabilitated him to another role.  Then there were the ham-fisted or spatially challenged who just about managed to limp through their check rides.  Sit me behind a well-trained robot anytime.

I listened to the report driving back from Scarborough where I had just witnessed Yorkshire crushed by Essex.  Apart from some fantastic bowling by Amir, the highlight of my afternoon was craning my neck and screwing my eyelids to watch 3 training Tucano aircraft from Linton-on-Ouse engaged in a vigorous tail chase a few miles to the West.  Much more exciting than Yorkshire’s batting and a reminder of such happy days in the past!