Risky Shift to Reckless

How do we explain the torrent of disaffection from Conservative to UKIP?  Place the two manifestos side by side for consideration by a reasonable individual and it is likely that the individual would side with the Conservatives.  However, ask a group of Conservative supporters to discuss, say, immigration and it is probable that the conclusions reached would be more extreme than the original inclination of the members.  This is because discussion among like-minded individuals tends to increase and intensify pre-existing attitudes. Add the pressure of social media, particularly the remoteness and inherent lack of accountability in Twitter and Facebook and the proposition looks even more likely.

As a pilot, in the early days of the concept of Crew Resource Management, we were warned, during training exercises, of  the tendency for groups to make decisions that would not normally be made by cautious individuals. The danger was that individual behaviour could change in a group situation providing some sort of cavalier spirit to decision making.  The phenomenon was known, colloquially, as the "the risky shift."  On a three or four man flight deck, the possibility of a minority idea gaining momentum through an application of the risky shift was very real indeed.  If the idea was bad in concept in the first place, the fact that the course of action could be exaggerated by the participants of the decision, could become disastrous.

I wonder if something like the risky shift is occurring amongst Conservatives today?  Encouraged by the behaviour of the likes of Carswell and Reckless, ordinary members feel they can jump on the bandwagon with impunity.  What began with a devil-may-care protest vote very rapidly becomes a disastrous fait-accompli. And the worrying aspect of a risky shift, as opposed to a ritual kicking of the government during a by-election, is that the risky shift can become permanent.

On a flight-deck there were only two ways to break the risky shift spell; reasoning or an autocratic slap across the face (metaphorically, probably).  As we approach the election and take stock of our resources I wonder whether we have a plan or the resources to break the loop?