Vote UKIP - Get More Immigration!

The UKIP Manifesto calls for withdrawal from the EU because: "outside the EU, we can manage our borders and decide who we want to come and live and work in the UK. EU rules stop us from doing this." As far as how the UK is to pay its way in the European order the manifesto is less than fulsome but, on the other side of the beer mat, it says: "On leaving the EU, the UK will keep the trade agreements we entered as an EU member prior to the Lisbon Treaty. Outside the EU, we can negotiate our own trade deals, but be in a stronger position, as we will be negotiating in the British interest."

Leaving aside the nitty-gritty of accounting arguments, there is no doubt that the UK's trade with the rest of the EU is enormous. The key to what would happen, as Roger Bootle points out in "The Trouble with Europe," is what sort of trade relations could be agreed with the rest of the EU post UK exit.  Indeed, he warns that if  the UK withdrew from the Union, we would still have to abide by many of the obligations to which we are already legally party.

Nevertheless, it would appear that UKIP is broadly right in concluding that UK would have a strong negotiating hand.  Since trade with the UK is as much as 15% of the EU economy, it would be vital, to both parties, to maintain this activity. The situations of Norway and Switzerland are often held forth  as examples of the best of both worlds. So would achieving a similar agreement for UK be the answer or a Catch 22?

Although both Norway and Switzerland are outside the EU they are closely tied in practice.  Indeed, as Mats Persson noted in The Telegraph on 24 November, "both Switzerland and Norway are required to accept free movement of labour as the price for trading with the EU."  In a delightful irony he continues, "these two countries now take in more EU migrants per head than the UK."  So, if UK were to become like Switzerland we would be faced with the prospect of four times as many EU migrants as today!

As Yossarian observed, "that's some catch that Catch-22."  "The best there is," agreed Doc Daneeka!