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Paul Collier wrote a very interesting
piece in the Spectator this week in which he said that we must regain our
bargaining power in the Brexit by, counterintuitively, withdrawing the Article 50
declaration.
The analysis of the problem was
cogent as he likened the referendum result to a mutiny fomented by a breakdown
of trust between the less successful citizens and their highly-skilled and flexible
counterparts, mainly from the South East.
Collier argues that a healthy society rests on the mutual acceptance of
a web of obligations amongst its citizens.
No longer feeling reassured, the less fortunate mutinied. Of course, there were other reasons for
voting leave but the mutiny having succeeded there was, as is typical of
mutinies, no coherent plan on what to do next.
Here I will depart from Collier’s analysis
to point out that a large number of influential opponents of leaving kept
themselves well below decks during the mutiny.
Perhaps they felt that their intellect was not needed in such an open
and shut argument? The remain foot
soldiers, however, refused to surrender, only increasing the vehemence of their
opposition to the referendum result.
With the high-profile mutineers
melting into the back ground as the battle had, apparently, been won, although
the decks had been cleared, the Government was saddled with a policy without a
plan. In retrospect, it would have been sensible
to take stock and define, debate and agree a plan that would achieve adequate agreement
for implementation. However, faced with
the Gina Miller disruption and the increasingly strident voices of the
Conservative remain camp, perhaps May felt she had to move decisively to reassure
the electorate before the disgruntled losers hijacked and destroyed the process. The behaviour of most of both Houses of
Parliament thoroughly vindicates this decision.
Even so, she should have been able
to count on her coalition majority to carry things through. But this was not to be. Those who had skulked below decks during the
mutiny now began to show their true colours – they might have said they support
the referendum result and the recent manifesto commitments, but they really believed
in remaining. As their own momentum has built
they have become increasingly bold culminating with outright rebellion reported
this weekend. As I write, it seems
increasingly unlikely that we shall be able to extricate ourselves from the EU.
So back to Collier who argues that the
only way out of the increasingly bitter impasse in which we find ourselves is
to withdraw Article 50, make a plan, and start again when we are good and ready. Although there would be a huge risk of the Remain
influencers scotching the whole project it may be the only way to avoid some
sort of BRINO fudge. Depressingly, Collier
may, have a point? How far have we come from
the words of the Government leaflet sent out to every household during the
referendum, “this is your decision, we will implement what you decide.” MPs
should be thoroughly ashamed.
