I’ve said this before with reference to playing the game of
rubber Bridge for money, the sort of game for more money than I could afford to lose was the most
stimulating and concentrated the mind wonderfully, that the successful money
winners had learned the distinction between the best possible outcome and the
best outcome possible. In the former case, players always strive to post the top
score on every deal, regardless of the circumstances. They usually lose money overall. The
more canny professional will take all the surrounding circumstances into
account and aim for the best outcome possible given the circumstances - who he is playing with and against, the state of the rubber, odds and chances and the inevitable impact of lady luck, to name but a few. They usually win money overall. More importantly, by being sensitive to the skill
and character of various partners and opponents, the true professional
preserves the relationships upon which his livelihood depends. SJ Simon, a
founder of the enduring “Acol” system and author of the wonderful book, “Why
You Lose at Bridge,” expounded this concept in a chapter titled “Half a Loaf.”
In the drawn-out Brexit shouting match, I’d like to aim for
a top score and my inclination is for a clean break, a blank sheet of paper
from which to negotiate a new relationship which frees us from the dead weight
of the EU and puts us back in charge of our own fortune. I say inclination,
honestly, because I have no qualifications for predicting the outcomes of
various Brexit scenarios – my heart says the clean break scenario would be my best
possible result. There is a number of
people, but not a majority, who feel that way and I was recently asked to sign
a petition advocating, specifically, a “no-deal Brexit.” Whilst that is where I hope we could end up,
I declined to sign for reasons that will become clear.
Indeed, the sky may not fall in on 1 November, the
Conservatives may win the forthcoming election with a decent majority and begin
harvesting the fruits of independence with a proper conservative agenda of
social and economic progression. Old wounds may be healed and the hysterical
reactions, on both sides, during the Brexit debate be forgotten. But they
probably won’t, and like the bridge professional who must cut for partners again
tomorrow night, we need to preserve an honourable relationship with both the
internal opponents of Brexit, in itself, and our European neighbours with whom a
strategic partnership is axiomatic. Finally, regardless of the outcome, I doubt if we should be forgiven by a large percentage of the electorate if we ploughed on without attempting to negotiate an arrangement with the EU.
We need to try to get a deal even if we fail doing it.
Recent signs from Biarritz and hints from commentators show that there appears
to be some willingness from Brussels to negotiate, even revisit the cursed
Withdrawal Agreement. Of course, should Brussels sense that the UK parliament
will block no deal then they will shut up shop and wait for the likes of
Phillip Hammond to do their dirty work for them. It is, therefore, essential,
that we are able to push the EU to their limit up to the summit on October 17th
and to be able to draw down our shutters if the outcome is unacceptable to UK. But
to get to October 17th, we need to repel the legislative efforts of those
parties who proclaim to be against a no deal Brexit but, in truth, would seek
to call the whole thing off if they could. This means deploying all practicable measures within the Geneva Convention of parliamentary procedure, just as our opponents have vowed to do. Simultaneously, we need to
neutralise the threat of a vote of no confidence and this, surely, demands
keeping potentially wavering Conservative MPs onside, at least for the time
being (for with whom would Brussels negotiate during the precious time available until 31st October if the Government fell)? So, we must continue to act and
proclaim in pursuit of a deal. Then, with the Government and the policy
intact, we should be in the position to walk away from the EU Summit with either a
practicable draft of a deal, ie, half a loaf that could be sold to our
parliament, or nothing at all. No fudges and no more delays. In the event of Brussels not playing ball, serendipity
would strike and we should emerge with best possible deal having played our
hand, honourably, for the best deal possible.
Either way, a battle-fatigued Parliament and their electorate may accept
either outcome as having been honestly achieved in the circumstances and call
an end to Brexit hostilities accordingly.
It seems like the best chance we have got.