Boris Is Not The Traitor

So, Boris is vilified for disloyalty. Sources say that the party will never forgive him if his ill-judged intervention in the Brexit debate leads to Theresa May’s downfall. It’s either May way or the spectre of a Corbyn government.  This is blackmail. Theresa May has already signalled surrender to the Remoaners. We will end up, in a few years, with a dogs' breakfast relationship with the EU. So what difference if that situation is led by Corbyn or May’s successor. Who would want to be part of a Conservative Party that so disgracefully turned the will of the referendum on its head and spurned the opportunity to take back control of money, laws and immigration? They deserve political oblivion accordingly. Boris, by pointing out some uncomfortable truths, is actually the one who is being true and loyal.

Florence in Firenze

Florence, the character in the Magic Roundabout, plays happily with the other children and is often seen as conciliatory in smoothing ruffled feathers.  In Firenze, Mrs May tried to be conciliatory to the other children in the garden.

Mr McHenry, who is normally quite precise, pointed out that in a first past the post referendum, one side will win and one side will lose. The winning side gets to implement it’s manifesto. There is no obligation on the winning side to compromise their commitment in favour of those who voted for the other side. Yet that is exactly what is happening in the garden. Instead of the winners getting on with leaving, Florence seems set on appeasing the losers. The result, neither one thing nor the other, will be a complete Dougal's breakfast and ensure that neither the benefits of staying in are maintained nor the potential of leaving are realised. "Relax man," drawled Dylan, "its no big deal." But Zebedee popped to conclude that the political class had just stuck up two fingers to the 17,000,000 who voted leave. "Is it time for bed yet," asked Brian?

Florence

Leaked reports from Downing Street suggest that Theresa May will today offer to maintain UK budgetary contributions to the EU to facilitate a multi-speed exit. A figure of £20 billion a year is mentioned.

Let us examine what we should get for our money?

In 2015, according to the ONS, 44% of the UK’s goods and services were exported to the EU whilst 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU.  The value of UK exports to the EU was £223.3 billion whilst the value of imports from the EU was £291.1 billion.

If tariff free access to EU markets ended tomorrow we should begin paying the EU a premium on everything we sell to them. Let us assume that this is a one-sided arrangement and that, in generous recognition of the benefits of free trade, we do not make a reciprocal charge on everything they sell us. Assuming, further, a uniform WTO tariff of 6% levied on everything we sell, we would have to pay the EU £13.398 billion on our exports.

So, that leaves a net contribution to EU funds of £6.602 billion each year of transition. We could be pretty sure that we should have no influence how the EU spent this money and equally certain that none of it would find its way back to the UK as spending or investment. Neither would this payment do anything to overcome the non-tariff barriers to trade which would only accelerate in the fundamentally protectionist EU.  So, if the £6 billion is for goodwill, you would have to be a supreme optimist to expect any of that commodity winging its way back in the opposite direction. On the contrary, listening to Macron and his unashamed bribes to lure British industry to France, £6 billion will only be the start of our “punishment.”

I fear that far from breaking the log jam of negotiation, Florence will mark the beginning of abject capitulation.

BBC Claims Impartiality

Adam Rutherford is a presenter for a BBC Radio 4 science programme.  Rutherford disagrees with the views of Graham Stringer MP who sits on the Commons Science and Technology Committee. Stringer, apparently, believes that government policies to mitigate man-made global warming could be harmful.  Rutherford urged his Twitter followers to show “righteous indignation” at Stringer’s reselection to the Committee.

The BBC, Rutherford’s employer, has rebuked him because they claim that his comments on Twitter potentially compromised the BBC’s impartiality on the climate change issue.  A display of righteous indignation from the BBC, if ever there was one!

Woe O'Leary

Hot on the heels of Michael O’Leary’s apocalyptic warning that all flights to and from the EU will be cancelled for months following Brexit, the airline is softening up the travelling public by announcing that, “in an attempt to improve punctuality,” up to 50 flights a day may be cancelled (8 schedules from Dublin were cancelled this morning).  Whilst O’Leary blames Brexit for future chaos, in the latter case, the disruption seems entirely down to Ryanair mismanagement.  The problem arises because of the difficulty Ryanair is having in complying with new EU regulations about annual leave for its pilots and staff.  The airline, in yet another mea culpa, admits that it has “messed up” but points out that only a small number of passengers will be affected.  My estimate of a “small number is as follows: 50 flights per day at, say 180 passengers per flight for 42 days equals about 387,000 disgruntled customers.  Ryanair says that affected passengers will be offered a refund or seats on a later flight. The cost of a refund, if the fare was only a few quid, is probably irrelevant.  But there is, of course, another EU regulation pertinent in these circumstances under which passengers are entitled to compensation if their flight is delayed or cancelled.  The sums involved are substantial.  The get out for airlines is usually that the delay or cancellation was due to “extraordinary circumstances.” However, it is likely that the cause of the cancellations, “we messed up,” would not qualify for “extraordinary circumstances” so O’Leary seems set for a big pay-out.  In a delightful case of schadenfreude, O’Leary may be about to find out that his eurothusiasm is about to bite him in his bottom line.  But let us hope he stumps up with characteristic good grace?