Reasons to be Fearful

Whilst there are reasons to be cheerful about the UK economy the world in which we sit looks particularly dangerous.  The situation in Ukraine worsening, Syria is in turmoil, ISIL is threatening Iraq and Syria, Pakistan rent by Taliban outrage, and nuclear armed North Korea completely unpredictable.  It could be argued that the threat to the West and our way of life has never been greater.

Indeed, India is  increasing its defence spending as is Japan.  Japan is in dispute with Russia and China over disputed territory and other Far East States such as South Korea remain vulnerable. Parts of South America and Africa remain unstable. With the basis of their economy undermined by the collapse of the oil price and smarting from EU sanctions we should not expect Russia to take their present situation lying down.  They are not going to give up over Ukraine and may even threaten other Baltic states.

Traditional support for NATO by the USA is in decline as that Nation shifts its focus to the East.  European Nations continue to reduce their defence spending in the cosy delusion that European Union will keep the peace.  Meantime, China will spend $132bn on defence, up 12.2% on last year, and Russia has more than doubled spending on defence over the past ten years.

I rest the case for defence!

Christmas Cheer

New data provides  heart warming news on the health of the economy as we move into 2015 and I am grateful to Allister Heath for pointing out the following:

• Pay is rising even taking account of price rises so Labour will no longer be able to claim that workers are seeing their pay cut
• Those who had been in a job for a while were already enjoying rises, it is now revealed
• Lower oil prices will be a boost to consumer spending
• Unemployment is down again - 6% compared to 7.4% a year ago
• Nearly three quarters of new jobs were full time
• There are more job vacancies now than before the crash in 2008
• Public sector employment continues to fall whilst the private sector is hiring
• Small firms are innovating and hiring; bringing new vibrancy to the economy

That is the reality - we must now deal with the perception!

English Votes for English Laws

I am struggling to see how recent announcements about proposals to settle "The West Lothian Question" will help with enacting a solution. In the aftermath of the Scottish Referendum, David Cameron said:

"I have long believed that a crucial part missing from this national discussion is England. We have heard the voice of Scotland - and now the millions of voices of England must also be heard. The question of English votes for English laws – the so-called West Lothian question – requires a decisive answer."

But he went on by adding two significant hostages to fortune:

"I hope that is going to take place on a cross-party basis."

"It is also important we have wider civic engagement about to improve governance in our United Kingdom, including how to empower our great cities. And we will say more about this in the coming days."

So, instead of a "decisive answer" we have 3 proposals for debate.  Given the opportunity for partisan political advantage, it is difficult to see how cross-party progress could be made towards a solution.  Worse, the non sequitur of linking regional empowerment to the central question should so distract the debate as to ensure discussion continues in the long grass for evermore.

Christmas cracker conundrum for the Conservative Party - arrange the following words into a logical sequence: "Fire," "Aim" and "Ready?"

No Sign of Clarity on Immigration

Jeremy Warner noted recently that within 45 years the UK will be Europe's largest economy but that position will have been won by a growth in population based upon immigration.  Quoting from a 2015 "Ageing Report" he notes that net immigration into the UK will continue at current elevated levels for much of the period, adding a further 9 million to the population by 2060.  This is a salutary revelation  with profound implication for our culture and the infrastructure that supports our way of life eg schools, hospitals and public services (to say nothing of Armed Forces recruitment).  Of course, projections and extrapolations can prove inaccurate but we have to start somewhere.  I would far rather have a plan for the worst case scenario rather than blunder on in hope that the statisticians and forecasters will be proved wrong in practise.

Most reasonable people are not against immigration of itself but it is perfectly reasonable to demand honesty about its impact.  Further, we have a right to expect that, if we have an immigration policy, our border controls are capable of implementing it.

The current Labour Party disarray over immigration policy must have come as an early Christmas present to the Conservative strategists.  I would be sharing the back-slapping and glad-handing if there was any evidence to show that the Conservative policy was any more coherent.  I remarked before that David Cameron had made a promising start in his recent major speech and he had provided some hope, albeit in a non-specific sort of way.  What we need now, however, is evidence of intent.

Sports Personality?

The annual BBC oxymoron, "Sports Personality," has come and gone with a fair amount of sour grapes for the winner.  For all the fantasy on display, the contestants were just a bunch of shallow advertisements for the heroic talent they ought to represent.  What an insult to all who believe in the purity of sporting achievement and what an indictment on the cultural pretentions of the BBC!

We Need a Public Debate about Defence

How reassuring to read in Sundays Telegraph that although Michael Fallon has no experience of defence he finds battle field detail "fascinating" and that he has his finger on the trigger, 24/7.  He is reluctant to accept that the MOD is at threat from further budget cuts and he will be "fighting his corner."  He concedes that the public want money spent on schools and hospitals so good luck in that negotiation with George Osborne.  He thinks the size of our Armed Forces is "probably about right."  To which I think we are entitled to ask, about right for what?  It was gratifying to hear that the RAF has been intercepting Russian air forces testing our air defences but that does not really amount to a defence policy.  Perhaps the MOD Press Office who, presumably, helpfully provided all the puff for the Sunday Telegraph article, could enlighten us?  Then, perhaps, we may have an intelligent debate about national security objectives and the required level of forces to ensure them.