Mind the Gap

In his diary today, John Redwood broke down the components of the hugely disappointing balance of payments figures totalling 5.2% of GDP for last year:

• Over 1/4 of the deficit is because of payments to the EU and overseas aid.  These will go on rising because they are ratcheted to growth
• Then there is the money we are paying foreigners who own UK assets - this will also go on rising
• Finally there is the gap in trade - in surplus to the rest of the world but massively in deficit to the EU

The record deficit has provoked a rash of Brexit scare stories.  The Governor of the Bank of England says that we now rely on the "kindness of strangers" as foreign investors bridge the current account gap.  George Osborne invokes project fear - "today's figures expose the real danger of economic uncertainty and shows that now is precisely not the time to put our economic security at risk by leaving the EU." 

When I was a young Royal Air Force Pilot, struggling to contain my monthly mess bill within my monthly salary, I was reliant upon the" kindness" of Cox's & Kings Bank (6 Pall Mall SW1) to keep me afloat.  When it became apparent that their patience was wearing thin, I was obliged to trim my expenditure and seek more moderate company in the Mess.  I just wonder whether there might not be a parallel with George's stewardship of the economy?  He has certainly spent profligately, doubling the National Debt whilst in office.  And when a bit of good fortune came his way, instead of saving and insuring against the next financial shock, he dispensed it like free beer at Happy Hour.

Rather than trying to scare us by saying that if we leave the EU we may not be able to borrow on such benevolent terms, perhaps the real answer is to borrow less, get the public finances in order and become solvent?

Norman Gandy

In memory of my Uncle, 2nd Engineering Officer Arthur Norman Gandy, who, on 28 March 1943, together with the Master and crew of SS Silverbeech died when torpedoed by U-159 which was part of the Seeraeuber Patrol Group (U 105,67,123,159,167,172,513,&515).  They had no chance.

David Petraeus

Apart from being an acknowledged cheat, liar and adulterer, General Petraeus is completely wrong. UK would not "retreat to the perceived safety of isolation."  This is a preposterous notion.  The UK would maintain and develop whatever security arrangements are considered necessary for the defence of the Nation, starting with NATO.

Questioning EU's Open Borders

I read that David Cameron said it was "inappropriate" to discuss the border arrangements in the aftermath of the Brussels attacks.  I wonder if the word he might have meant, in the circumstances, was "inconvenient?"

Another Budget Disappointment

As George Osborne’s latest budget, the fourth in a year, begins to unravel; inter alia, the miracle of a budget surplus in 2020 shown to be the sleight of hand that it is, with the chorus of disapproval over disability benefits rising and the prospect of another year of “austerity” after the next election exposed, we begin to see this latest manoeuvre for what it is – shameless political manoeuvring.

Perhaps the Chancellor would wish to forget his criticism of a predecessor for failing to fix the roof whilst the sun was shining.  Following a £27b accounting windfall in November we now find that we must borrow £116b over the next 3 years in order to keep the financial plan on track.  The national debt, incidentally is now over £1500b and has doubled since George Osborne became Chancellor.  The interest on the national debt, at £46b per annum, is now about what we spend on defence. The pathetic misquoting of the OBR, pointing to a period of uncertainty following a Brexit vote, reinforcing project fear, has backfired.  In any case, the possibility of financial uncertainty following a Brexit vote which might lead to increased costs of servicing this obscene national debt is, of course, not an argument for remaining in the EU.  It is, quite simply, a prima facie case for borrowing less and paying back more and anyone who really cared about the “next generation” would have done something about it.

For what it’s worth, I would expect that the next generation would be most concerned about:

•  Our woeful lack of productivity
•  Our second class education system
• Our chaotic and unaffordable energy policy
• The spectre of saturating immigration further encouraged by the minimum wage.
• A joined-up national transport plan
•  Pulling our weight in the Atlantic alliance

Now, if the Chancellor really was concerned about doing the right thing, perhaps he might have made a start on some of the above?