Who Wins with WTO Tariffs?

The fifth column of Remainers never seem to lose an opportunity to point out the importance of concluding a deal with the “single market” and warn of the danger of otherwise having to rely on World Trade Organisation rules for the conduct of our trade.

In 2015, according to the ONS, 44% of the UK’s goods and services were exported to the EU whilst 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU.  The value of UK exports to the EU was £223.3 billion whilst the value of imports from the EU was £291.1 billion.

Assuming no single market deal and, for example, a uniform tariff of 6% levied on everything coming in together with the same tariff being charged on everything we sell, our imports would yield revenue of £17.466 billion whilst we would have to pay the EU £13.398 billion on our exports.

So, relying on uniform WTO rules, UK would be 17.466 – 13.398 = £4.068 billion each year to the good on the trading account with the EU.

That is £4.068 billion per year that we would not have to borrow from overseas investors who, for the time being, are keeping UK in business by financing our huge current account deficit.

Surely, even the Wallonian Parliament could do the math?

PS, as John Redwood points out in his Blog on 20 October -

"They still seem unable to grasp that there is no such thing as the Single Market detached from the full panoply of EU laws and policies which a state can belong to, nor that the debate is only about access to each other’s markets which should be relatively straightforward"

Calais Children

Children from the Calais migrant camp will begin arriving in the UK next week. Apparently, all these children have relatives in the UK.

In England we already have a lot of “looked after children.”  A child is “looked after” by a local authority if a court has granted a care order to place a child in care, or a council's children's services department has cared for the child for more than 24 hours.

The number of “looked after children” has risen steadily over the years - on 31 March 2016, in England, there were 70,440.  This figure showed a 1% increase over the previous year (5% since 2012) and included 1470 new unaccompanied asylum seeking children compared to a rise of 970 in all looked after children.  You may agree that these figures are shocking, both in social and economic terms?

It is to be hoped that the new arrivals from Calais will be quickly integrated with their relatives here and will not add to the disturbing numbers of children already without a proper home.

More Spokes in The Wheels

“EU Leaders reject May over “hard Brexit” talks” says the Times, continuing the relentless rear-guard action on behalf of the sulking Remainers.  The finger wagging extends to the Times leader where we are told that we should aim for “as integrated a trade agreement as possible and a compromise on immigration.”

There is a well-known adage that when one is up to one’s arse in alligators it is sometimes difficult to remember that the original aim was to drain the swamp.

The British electorate, on June 23^rd 2016, quite simply, voted to leave the EU.  That is; to regain sovereignty over immigration and law-making and to forge our own trading arrangements with the rest of the world.  Let us, therefore, concentrate on achieving the aim and accept that whatever remains is the consequence thereof.  There is no such thing as a perfect world.

The metaphorical alligators, politicians throwing spokes in the negotiating wheel at every opportunity, should reflect upon Matt Ridley, quoting John Longworth (also in The Times today):

“Trade consists of a willing seller and a willing buyer.  If the buyer wants a product and it is the right quality and price there will be a trade.  Governments do not trade, they only get in the way.”

The best thing that politicians can now do is recognise the limits of their competence and get on with enacting the will of the people.  Do we really have so little faith in our business and industry that we need a bunch of pious MPs to tell us how to trade?