Half a Loaf Anyone?

A few weeks ago, breaking my mood of constant despair over the Brexit process, I shared with some friends an idea that could break the ideological deadlock in Parliament.  My reasoning was this: despite the “Surrender Act,” Brussels still frets that Boris could, indeed, leave with no deal on 31 October.  Although the EU, in public, claims to be able to shrug off the loss of the UK, in private, they are desperately worried of the potential economic shock which could tip the balance in recession threatened continental Europe – the EU needs a deal.  Boris needs a deal too.  Despite the bravado of the no ifs and buts strategy of leaving on 31 October, he must know that whatever constitutional sharp practice might be necessary to circumvent the “Surrender Act” would be challenged in the courts and probably on the streets.  His only hope is to do a deal with Brussels and then get Parliament to agree it. Some hope – Parliament has already shown that, in the greater interest of defying the referendum altogether, they will frustrate and block any measure that promotes a path to the UK actually leaving the EU.  But suppose Boris cooks up a deal with the EU which, as far as the EU is concerned, looks like Mrs May’s deal and, as far as Boris is concerned, satisfies the DUP over backstop provisions and changes the political declaration sufficiently to alter the Parliamentary arithmetic?  I very much doubt that even that would not be good enough to neutralise the wreckers whose sole object is to stay in the EU.  However, suppose the deal came with strings from the EU – accept the deal or reject it but there is no extension to the deadline for the UK exit.  Parliament would then be faced with a simple binary choice, no ifs or buts, vote for the deal or leave without a deal by default on 31 October.  That should concentrate a few honourable minds!  Under the circumstances, the chances of Parliament voting for the new deal look quite good.  Brussels should be reasonably confident that Parliament would oblige so there would be relatively little risk in them caveating the deal with “no further extension.”  Even better for Brussels, with the real threat of no extension hanging over Parliament, they should not have to concede much from Mrs May's hopeless effort in order to get the new deal to pass.

Of course, the new deal will be a poor deal for the UK.  Doubtless we will still be liable to pay out billions for many years ahead and will be unlikely to be able to throw off, significantly, the shackles of the single market and customs union.  People will continue to come and go as they please, agriculture will remain a basket case and Scottish fishermen will be disappointed.  We’ll probably even commit to the European Army and the Euro in due course.  But we will be out and, from there, anything could be possible.  Half a loaf anyone?

Peter Beardsley

In March 1994, our family had been invited to the Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle United match.  We had been entertained in the Director’s Box and had experienced a memorable afternoon, particularly as Newcastle United won.  Leaving the ground some time after the end of the game we encountered the Newcastle team bus, marshalled by Kevin Keegan, manoeuvring to leave the car park.  My teenage daughter, sensing an opportunity, rushed to the door of the bus clutching her match programme, hoping for an autograph or two.  She was intercepted by Kevin who asked her, “who’s autograph do you want pet?”  Quick as a flash my daughter replied, “Peter Beardsley.”  Kevin went back into the bus and returned with the programme, duly signed.

Adored by the fans in 1994 and making over 300 appearances for the club, it was sad to see that in 2019 Peter Beardsley had been suspended from football for 32 weeks for making racist comments to players.  What he had said, apparently, was “obviously racist and wholly unacceptable.”  In a line of mitigation, the FA panel said that “he is now 58 years of age,” and “he has not had the benefit of training and education about offensive racist remarks and the importance of not making them.”

Leaving aside the specifics of this case and, to be clear, I do not think that anything Peter Beardsley was alleged to have said was acceptable at any time, never mind today, I doubt if many of us, now in retirement, have had, “the benefit of training and education about offensive racist remarks.”  In the fast-developing world of victimhood and correctness, how are old people like us to keep up.  Fortunately, the BBC can help.  We have just watched the Gentleman Jack series and have greatly benefitted form the correction to my misconceptions of 19^th Century social history.  Similarly, I do look forward to this Sunday night’s offering, “World on Fire.”  We are told that viewers will “quickly clock the unusual diversity of key players.”  That subtle eh?

  

Green Killing

A very senior ex RAF friend drew my attention to a news item headlined that our army was to phase out fossil fuels. In a recent address, General Carleton-Smith said that a move to clean energy would put the military, “on the right side of the environmental argument.” My friend described the policy as, “stark, staring bonkers.” As a relatively junior Officer, it is not Mushroom's place to question the Air Marshal's concise and measured military judgement nor stir up any inter-service disagreement. However, I do sense a woke opportunity to emphasise the value “our people,” a monotonously repeated cliché which helps conceal the lack of investment in fighting kit. With one eye firmly on future recruits who, apparently, will base their decision to take the Queen’s Shilling upon the environmental credentials of the MOD, there is an opportunity to reinforce the green message in the biodegradable packaging of field ration packs. In a move that could have been inspired by Milo Minderbinder, battlefield recycling instructions could include the morale boosting message: “Her Majesty thanks you, in advance, for your forthcoming supreme sacrifice, and expresses the wish that you will be proud to know that your death was entirely carbon-neutral.”

Good Riddance

I googled "ratbag" and was surprised by the variety of definition and derivation. Consistently, however, all synonyms could readily be applied to the laughing stock of a Parliament which finally ended it's woeful session. Astonishingly, 46 " honourable" members abstained on a vote for a general election- even a Turkey would have a view on the forthcoming festival and feast. The undisguised relish with which every impediment placed upon the government by the TV media has become sickening to watch. Nobody, it seems, is prepared to defend our future in the EU. How will we deal with the policy of ever closer union? What will become of our hard-earned budget rebate?  Are we destined to pin our security hopes on the fanciful European Army? When will we be obliged to join the Euro? How could we ever trust our European "partners" again after the disgraceful and disdainful way we have been treated?

In desperation, I went for a walk with a friend who knows almost everything about wildlife and nature. In glorious weather I spotted my first Peregrine Falcon and marvelled at the precision of the formation of six Gannets, neatly arranged in echelon port. So much better for the soul than listening to the sanctimonious ratbag in Westminster?

Are the Conservatives on the Ropes?

Is the Conservative Party really on the ropes or are they taking punishment in a Muhammad Ali “rope-a-dope” trick to lure the opposition into a trap?  The last few days have been very tough on Conservatives in general and supporters of Brexit in particular. Personal discomfort has been exacerbated by the grinning TV media who have been unable to conceal their delight in the Prime Minister’s difficulties.  Boris was below par at PMQ on Wednesday and a speech at a Police Academy in Wakefield today reported as “chaotic and rambling.” Successive government reverses in have shown that it will be impossible to carry out current/future manifesto and deliver Brexit on present parliament.  How can we have allowed ourselves to get into this position and how can Conservative strategy have been so naïve as to fail to anticipate the rebel alliances and the Speaker’s vindictive spanners in the works?  It would be easy to despair.  But the clue to the salvation strategy actually lies in the apparently desolated battlefield of recent tactical reverses.  The intention was never to see off the rebels and hold a deal/or no deal by 31 October line in parliament – that plan could succeed but was much more likely to fail, as has proved to be the case.  The only sure way to sustain a Conservative government, and by manifesto, deliver Brexit, was to win the election that has been inevitable since Mrs May lost her authority in 2017.  The win must be a knockout blow to neutralise the opposition and ensure the smooth passage of promised legislation. Far from a failure to anticipate events, the Cummings’ strategy will capitalise on apparent reverses with the single unequivocal mission of obtaining a substantial Conservative Party parliamentary working majority.  As any military strategist throughout history will tell you, selecting and maintaining the aim is the essential ingredient of success.  Seen through the prism of the mission statement, most of what has gone on may be explained as either contributing to the grand strategy or written-off as the inevitable casualties of conflict, twenty one rebels included.  I do so hope I am right in my optimism.

Meantime, if Labour and the other parties, with all the parliamentary power at their disposal, will not vote to remove the Prime Minister, how can they complain if he acts against their wishes?