Commons Defence Committee

 I have just been catching up on the proceedings of the Commons Defence Committee, yesterday, 1 February 2023.  Trigger warning, this is an excruciating experience, particularly for Air Force veterans.  However, in true Staff College tradition, I am pleased to summarise the evidence of the star witness, Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, Chief of the Air Staff, as follows:

Sleep tight tonight, your Air Farce is awoke.

Looking back on my accident investigation experience it would be tempting to blame the Chief for the situation.  However, the root cause is surely the half-wit who appointed him in the first place?

Festive Sport

 

The programme resumes today after the festive break with the Conservative & Unionists facing a 30 point gap from safety.  Indeed, they face an uphill task for the remainder of the season as they attempt to shore up the club finances following the exodus of a large number of supporters.  The Manager hopes that some familiar names on the team sheet will change the crowd’s perception of United’s recent negative tactics.  Matt Warman remains suspended after his dismissal for violent conduct last time out.  Braveman is not risked following her succession of yellow cards for protest against the officials.  Despite showing a clean pair of heels to the opposition, Timpson misses out. Goodwill continues to try to impress whilst Merriman comes in for Freeman who has been released by the Club.  Duigud remains side-lined. The mid-field is unchanged with Levy once again covering for Freer and Cash.  Mark Spencer continues between the posts after his run of clean sheets.

 

Conservative & Unionists United XI

(4-4-2)

 

	Mark Spencer
Robert Goodwill	Liz Truss	Julian Sturdy	Huw Merriman
Tom Pursglove	Ian Levy	Mike Freer	Bill Cash
	Alberto Costa	Theresa Coffey

 

Christmas Irritants 2022

 

Perhaps it’s an age thing but I seem to have become more tolerant over the year.  Winkleperson continues to grate, like a nail on a blackboard, the Sussexes have made themselves so ridiculous that they can no longer be viewed seriously and therefore disqualify themselves, and even Gary Neville, making a surging run in the ITV commentary box, fails to make an impression in the final third.  Most of last years worthy finalists, including ever-presents like Lewis Hamilton and Gary Linekar have fallen victim to the squelch control on my radio set.  Even Julian Knight, having twinkled brightly last year, has encountered some personal difficulty which will serve to keep him quiet for the foreseeable.  It would be a poor selection this year were it not for a group entry whose sustained demonstration of incompetence, totally unjustified self-regard, and nauseating narcissism has provoked universal exasperation.   I refer, of course, to the 356 listed below (many of whom you will be completely unfamiliar but I include them all for completeness).  Following a brief flirtation with popularity at the back end of 2019, their motto at the time, “Ever Serve You Right,” has proved distressingly prescient:

Nigel Adams Bim Afolami Nicki Aiken Adam Afriyie Peter Aldous Lucy Allan Lee Anderson Stuart Anderson Stuart Andrew Caroline Ansell Edward Argar Sarah Atherton Victoria Atkins Gareth Bacon Richard Bacon Kemi Badenoch Shaun Bailey Siobhan Baille Duncan Baker Steven Baker Harriett Baldwin Steve Barclay John Baron Simon Baynes Aaron Bell Scott Benton Paul Beresford Jake Berry Saqib Bhatti Bob Blackman Crispin Blunt Peter Bone Peter Bottomley Andrew Bowie Ken Bradley Karen Bradley Graham Brady Suella Braverman Jack Brereton Andrew Bridgen Steve Brine Paul Bristow Sara Britcliffe Anthony Browne Fiona Bruce Felicity Buchan Robert Buckland Alex Burghart Conor Burns Rob Butler Alun Cairns Andy Carter James Cartlidge William Cash Miriam Cates Maria Caulfield Alex Chalk Rehman Chishti Christopher Chope Jo Churchill Greg Clark Simon Clark Theo Clark Fay Jones Marcus Jones Simon Jupp Daniel Kawczynski Alicea Kearns Gillian Keegan Greg Knight Kate Kniveton Danny Kruger Kwasi Kwarteng Eleanor Laing John Lamont Robert Largan Pauline Latham Andrea Leadsom Edward leigh Ian Levy Andrew Lewer Brandon Lewis Julian Lewis Ian Liddell-Grainger Chris Loder Mark Logan Marco Longhi Julia Lopez Jack Lopresti Johnathan Lord Tim Loughton Craig Mackinley Cherilyn Mackrory Rachel Maclean Alan Mak Kit Malthouse Anthony Mangnall Scott Mann Julie Marson Theresa May Jerome Mayhew Paul Maynard Jason McCartney Karl McCartney Stephen McPartland Esther McVey Mark Menzies Johnny Mercer Huw Merriman Stephen Metcalfe Robin Millar Maria Miller Amanda Milling Nigel Mills Andrew Mitchell Gagan Mohindra Damien Moore Robbie Moore Penny Mordaunt Anne Marie Morris David Morris James Morris Joy Morrissey Jill Mortimer Wendy Morton Kieran Mullan

Brendan Clarke-Smith Chris Clarkson James Cleverly Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Therese Coffey Elliot Colburn Damian Collins Alberto Costa Robert Courts Claire Coutinho Geoffrey Cox Stephen Crabb Virginia Crosbie Tracy Crouch James Daly David Davies Gareth Davies James Davies Mims Davies Philip Davies David Davies Dehenna Davison Caroline Dinenage Sarah Dines Jonathan Djanogly Leo Docherty Michelle Donelan Nadine Dorries Steve Double Oliver Dowden Jackie Doyle-Price Richard Drax Flick Drummond James Duddridge David Duguid Iain Duncan Smith Philip Dunne Mark Eastwood Ruth Edwards Michael Ellis Tobias Ellwood Natalie Elphicke George Eustace Luke Evans Nigel Evans David Evennett Ben Everitt Michael Fabricant Laura Farris Simon Fell Anna Firth Katherine Fletcher Mark Fletcher Nick Fletcher Vicky Ford Kevin Foster Liam Fox Mark Francois Lucy Frazer George Freeman Mike Freer Louie French Richard Fuller Holly Mumby-Croft David Mundell Sheryll Murray Andre Murrison Robert Neill Lia Nici Caroline Noakes Jesse Norman Neil O’Brien Matthew Offord Guy Opperman Priti Patel Mark Pawsey Mike Penning John Penrose Andrew Percy Chris Philp Dan Poulter Rebecca Pow Victoria Prentis Mark Pritchard Tom Pursglove Jeremy Quin Will Quince Dominic Raab Tom Randall John Redwood Jacob Ress-Mogg Nicola Richards Angela Richardson Laurence Robertson Mary Robinson Andrew Rosindell Douglas Ross Lee Rowley Dean Russell David Rutley Gary Sambrook Selaine Saxby Paul Scully Bob Seely Andrew Selous Grant Shapps Alok Sharma Alec Shelbrooke David Simmonds Chris Skidmore Chloe Smith Greg Smith Henry Smith Julian Smith Royston Smith Amanda Solloway Ben Spencer Mark Spencer Alexander Stafford Andrew Stephenson Jane Stevenson John Stevenson Bob Stewart Iain Stewart Gary Streeter Mel Stride

Marcus Fysh Roger Gale Mark Garnier Nusrat Ghani Nick Gibb Peter Gibson Jo Gideon John Glen Robert Goodwill Michael Gove Richard Graham Helen Grant James Gray Chris Grayling Chris Green Damian Green Andrew Griffith James Grundy Johnathan Gullis Robert Halfon Luke Hall Stephen Hammond Greg Hands Mark Harper Rebecca Harris Trudy Harrison Sally-Ann Hart Simon Hart John Hayes Oliver Heald James Heappey Chris Heaton-Harris Gordon Henderson Darren Henry Antony Higinbotham Damian Hinds Simon Hoare Richard Holden Kevin Hollinrake Philip Hollobone Adam Holloway Paul Holmes John Howell Paul Howell Nigel Huddleston Neil Hudson Eddie Hughes Jane Hunt Jeremy Hunt Tom Hunt Alister Jack Sajid Javid Ranil Jayawardena Bernard Jenkin Mark Jenkinson Andrea Jenkyns Robert Jenrick Boris Johnson Caroline Johnson Gareth Johnson David Johnston Andrew Jones David Jones Graham Stuart Julian Sturdy Rishi Sunak James Sutherland Desmond Swayne Robert Syms Derek Thomas Maggie Throup Edward Timpson Kelly Tolhurst Justin Tomlinson Michael Tomlinson Craig Tracy Anne-Marie Trevelyan Laura Trott Elizabeth Truss Tom Tugendhat Shailesh Vara Martin Vickers Matt Vickers Theresa Villiers Charles Walker Robin Walker Ben Wallace Jamie Wallace Matt Warman Giles Watling Suzanne Webb Helen Whately Heather Wheeler Craig Whittaker John Whittingdale Bill Wiggin James Wild Craig Williams Gavin Williamson Mike Wood William Wragg Jeremy Wright Jacob Young Nadhim Zahawi

 

 

NHS Accountability

 

I read that health spending now accounts for a whopping 45% of overall government expenditure on goods and services.  As more and more borrowed money is lavished on the NHS it is dismal to learn that the number of operations being performed is lower than before Covid even though there are 13% more doctors, 11% more nurses and 10% more support staff.  How much more to turn the ship around or have we, perhaps, reached the point when we should be saying enough is enough? If we, the hapless patrons of such a broken system, were shareholders of the providing company we should be calling the Chief Executive to account.  However, as we know, healthcare provision is cunningly devised to that it is very difficult to pin anyone down, particularly over poor performance.  Of course, the Government department responsible for “the NHS” is Health and Social Care.  However, The Secretary of State, Steve Barclay today, can easily slope his shoulders because responsibility for allocating resources in the world’s second largest healthcare system is vested in the publicly unaccountable (and largely invisible) Amanda Pritchard.  Apparently, in a behind closed doors meeting with her executives on 13 October 2022, Amanda Pritchard described the health service’s financial situation as, “a f****** nightmare.” If half of Government spending is, “a f****** nightmare,” why is no one being called before Parliament to explain?  There are 650 elected Members of Parliament who have a vital responsibility to look out for how our taxes are spent.  But just whisper the abbreviation, "NHS," and the silence becomes deafening.

The Latest Conservative Government

 

I have refrained from publicising my exasperation with the Conservative Party but, as the threat of decimation at the ballot box looms, I need to let off steam.  Rishi Sunak in charge and, arguably, we have got the leader we deserved.  Those who supported the new Prime Minister will be pleased with the initial direction of travel.  A Government of “all the talents” will repel accusations of nepotism and give a warm feeling to all who feel most comfortable in a technocratic consensus. But the relatively warm reception to the new Government so far disguises the gaping fault lines beneath the veneer of competence.  Will the National Insurance Rise be reinstated, should the promised rise in defence spending be rescinded, can we afford to pump even more money into health and social care without fundamental reform, how will we achieve resilience in energy and agriculture, is it not time to reassess the drive to net zero, how will we deal with the barrage of public sector pay claims, should we roll over on the Northern Ireland Protocol, are we serious about limiting illegal immigration and, even if we achieve consensus on all the above, can we actually implement anything in the face of the social media campaigns against everything? Far from steadying the Conservative Party ship, Rishi Sunak now faces an existential crisis.  Can all these tensions remain beneath the surface?  There is an argument that says we will be stuffed at the ballot box anyway so we may as well get all the bitter arguments out in the open and refit the ship when all the blood has been spilt and washed from the decks.  On the other hand, we could all put our differences aside and unite behind a message of responsibility and compliance with orthodoxy.  This is the appeal today – get behind Rishi and take the medicine or face extinction.  The “medicine” will involve, amongst other things, continuous retrenchment, falling living standards, cuts to hitherto sacred areas of expenditure, increasing social friction and, of course, more taxes.  But when you have been abusing your economic health for so long, bingeing on ridiculously cheap credit and printed money, surely we should expect an uncomfortable treatment plan?  Quite so but the only thing missing from Rishi’s diagnosis is the potential for recovery and hope for the future.  I think we would all take the medicine more readily if we could see a glimpse of what life could be like beyond intensive care.  If we are to stay the course, like any survival situation, we need hope that we can prevail in the end.  So Rishi, give us some hope and a vision for recovery –

 

When daylight comes, comes in the light,

In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly,

But westward, look, the land is bright.

 

Ian Harrow 1945 - 2022

Ian Harrow, who was a constant inspiration for this Blog and a highly stimulating companion, died this morning. Ian and I first met in 1956 when we joined Form 1 at Heaton Grammar School, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, thereafter progressing to the 6th Form after which our respective careers diverged and we lost contact for nearly 50 years. Having reunited about 13 years ago we have, until recently, met every week to discuss everything of importance.  This was published in the Spectator, 22 January 2022:

Last Word But One

The vanity of your insistence

that there is still time remaining

to speak what words can't say

on these most wishful of days

when, for you, the dying part is near

and still you want to believe

the conversations will go on

as you rest your hand

like the hallucination of a hand

on files that nurse the latest

shortfall in everything you made

                                                    - Ian Harrow

Mushroom's Conservative Leadership Vote

 

Mushroom has cast his vote in the, apparently, never ending mudslinging and self-destruction of the Conservative brand.  The Labour high command must be laughing all the way to the bank having saved themselves a fortune from their campaigning budget.  Meanwhile, Starmer’s speech writers have been presented with a treasure trove of embarrassing political faux pas, all to be deployed against the Conservative Party as the next election approaches.

In the early rounds of the contest, I constructed a matrix of essential and desirable criteria for leadership and marked off each prospective candidate accordingly.  Unfortunately, the candidate who emerged top of my scientific evaluation, Suella Braverman, failed to impress enough honourable members and didn’t make the cut.  Instead, as we are reminded by the always excellent Rory Sutherland, “we get to choose between someone who studied philosophy, politics, and economics at Lincoln College Oxford, and someone who studied philosophy, politics, and economics at Merton College Oxford.”  How lucky we are.  Sutherland remarks that he finds “the very idea of an undergraduate degree in politics alarming.”  He concludes, “it’s one thing to theorise on the basis of practice; quite another to practise on the basis of theory.” 

Quite so, and as the various hopefuls were eliminated the two remaining had managed to say something that ticked every box in my Excel selection matrix.  So much for science!

But this contest is much more than a political game.  As Allister Heath points out in the Telegraph today, we are faced with, “looming power cuts, rocketing bills, water shortages, dysfunctional public services, sky-high taxes and a failing economy.” Heath, dammingly, blames, “a quarter-century of political, intellectual and moral failure in which most of our political class has been complicit.”

Oddly, the looming crises, offers an opportunity to choose a different path to the technocratic consensus of cakeism and political compromise.  Of course, neither candidate has dared to suggest that we should spend less, least of all on the NHS money-pit.  However, it seems clear that more of the same will not do – we must take the chance of doing something different.

I like Rishi Sunak but I have concluded that he is one of the technocratic consensus and that his solution of squeezing inflation whilst reassuring the work-shy that help is always at hand will not work and will be a certain recipe for defeat for the Conservative Party when the next election comes.  Of course, Liz Truss does not have a magic wand for inflation and the economy but she does seem to have the breadth of vision to, potentially, enact some more radical polices to increase growth and productivity from which economic equilibrium may be restored.  With the election still 2 years away, there is still time to restore the reputation of the Party.

But the game changer, for me, is that Liz seems to have appreciated that we need stand up to Russia and treat China more firmly than hitherto.  She seems to appreciate that this means spending more on defence – not just repeating the meaningless NATO target of 2% of GDP but serious expenditure to fund the military capability we need to promote our foreign policy.

So everywhere I look I judge that we could not be any worse off by giving disruption a try concurrent with beefing up our defences in an uncertain world.  It’s Liz for Mushroom.